Ever since the dual Hollywood strikes ended last year, many of the writers and other creatives I know in Hollywood have been waiting for the big turn-around. That moment when production increases to a level that somewhat approaches where the industry was at three years ago. And while production levels in Southern California have continued to tick up a bit in recent months, I'm beginning to hear from more and more people - some of them longtime veterans - who are beginning to consider moving away or exploring another career.
And I get it. There are few things more gutting to the soul than to realize the job you feel you were meant to do - the one you do very well - is slipping away from you. And there is little that you do other than to sit at your kitchen table late at night trying to decide which of the terrible options before you is the least painful.
I've received quite a few messages from people in recent weeks asking me when I thought things might turn around. 2025? Maybe early 2026? I get the impression that most of them know the answer, but are hoping that somehow I will have some insight that provides a bit of optimism about the future.
And to be honest, I don't know that I am all that optimistic. Yes, the strikes were disruptive and content spend is down at both the linear networks and most streamers. But Hollywood has problems that run deeper than that and I certainly am not a smart enough person to develop a solution.
There is competition from non-television and movie entertainment choices. Increasingly aggressive rebates and other funding is draining production to other states as well as other countries. And production is just more expensive in L.A. than in most places. It's not just the cast and crew costs, it's the price of every component in the production process. And while the broadcast networks can shift things around to keep productions somewhat viable, when presented with the cost difference between shooting in Hollywood versus Serbia or Australia or Hungary, executives often opt for the cheapest option.
This is not to say that Hollywood's talent isn't the best in the world. The problem is that there are an increasing number of places in the world where you can find talent that is good enough and at a price that makes the difference in talent level less of an issue. Particularly if you hire some American top-line talent and just rely on the locals for everything else. Sadly, most viewers don't notice (or care) where their favorite TV series or movie is produced. Just as long as it looks close enough to not break the magic of the moment.
I've had a couple of times in my life when I had to reinvent myself because my former profession had faded away. It's scary and depressing in a way that you have to experience yourself to understand. Hearing other people's stories in recent weeks has almost given my PTSD. I wish I had some words of comfort or could say that things are going to get better. But honestly, I'm not sure that is going to happen.
