Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Friday, January 17th, 2025:
PRODUCTION NOTES
Between a presidential inauguration and Martin Luther Kings' Birthday, it's a slow day in Hollywood, so the newsletter is a bit lighter than normal.
I did want to pass along some feedback I received from readers and let you know my thoughts on it. This isn't a political newsletter. If you're a long-time reader, you can probably guess my general politics, but I have never been a straight party guy.
The churn rate for this newsletter is extremely low. Extremely. Around 7-8 percent for free subscribers who have been subscribed for a year. Less than two percent for paid subscribers, and most of those are due to the credit card on file no longer being valid.
But after I wrote a couple of newsletters last week that argued media executives should not settle lawsuits and make other deals with the upcoming Trump administration in order to make it easier for them to do things such as pursue mergers...well, that didn't thrill some of my readers.
I have lost a much larger-than-normal number of free subscribers over the past few days and lost more paid subscribers than I have in the past two years. Not everyone gave a reason, but there were a few comments along the lines of "I'm not going to pay to hear from another Hollywood Libtard." Although, to be honest, if that's the takeaway you received from reading this newsletter, I think you've been doing it wrong.
It hurts a bit financially. But I am going to continue to write honestly and passionately about the entertainment industry. I'm not pushing a political agenda. But I more than willing to fight for the people in the industry that don't have a voice.
If you agree with that approach, I hope you'll continue to read this newsletter and pass it on to others.
WHAT'S UP AT NETFLIX
Netflix is presenting its Q4 earnings number on Tuesday after the close of the stock market and every analyst seems to be expecting some solid subscriber number growth. The market consensus (which is an aggregation of estimates from Wall Street analysts following the stock) expects Netflix to add 8.2 million global subscribers in the quarter, reaching 290.9 million.
But a number of analysts are expecting more aggressive numbers, with some estimates in the 11+ million new subscriber range. Which puts Netflix in the unenviable position of possibly having the Q4 numbers labeled disappointing, because the final number exceeded the 8.2 million estimate, it fell short of the much-higher analyst expectations.
As a reminder, this is the last quarter when the streaming leader plans to report subscriber numbers, shifting its emphasis to revenue and operating margin, along with audience metrics like engagement. From a reporting standpoint, that sucks. It gives me one less group of numbers to parse every quarter, especially when it comes to tracking growth (or lack thereof) in various global regions.
But I also see Netflix's point as well. In the streaming world, subscription numbers don't provide much clarity on the health and profitability of the business. 50 million subscribers with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $10 per subscriber is worth more than 100 million subscribers with an average ARPU of $3 per subscriber. And how much money is spent to get to that ARPU is also worth knowing.
In theory, I don't have a problem with Netflix shifting its reportable metrics. But that only works if they enough other data for outside analysts and journalists to track their business numbers. Especially when it comes to the widely varied ARPU and revenue that you find when you compare region-to-region.
A COUPLE OF GLOBAL TV SHOWS TO KEEP ON YOUR RADAR
There are two shows premiering on Hulu this week that are worth checking out, although I think in both cases, the shows fall in the category of "if this is your thing, you'll love it. If not, you'll probably be ambivalent."
Since the review embargo on both shows doesn't lift until they premiere, I can't say much until then. But here are the official loglines, which give you an idea of what to expect:
Whiskey On The Rocks (Wednesday, Hulu)
In the early hours of October 28, 1981, a Soviet nuclear Whiskey class submarine was spotted aground inside a restricted Swedish military area. The world teetered on the brink of disaster. With global superpowers on edge, the eyes of the world turned to Sweden's calm and collected prime minister, Thorbjörn Fälldin, a former sheep farmer, who faced the immense challenge of keeping peace between Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
In case you're interested, here is the trailer.
The Best Heart Attack Of My Life (Friday, Hulu)
The Best Heart Attack of My Life tells the story of Ariel, a frustrated ghostwriter with a sarcastic sense of humor and a messy life, who falls into a crisis when his wife leaves him, and he suffers a heart attack while staying in a temporary rental house abroad with a girl he has just met. This event will not only give new meaning to his life but also to the lives of many people around him.
In case you're interested, here is the trailer.
WE NEED TODAY'S VERSION OF 'NEW JOURNALISM'
One of the things that strikes me about a great deal of journalism - particularly arts and entertainment journalism - is that it is very dry and lifeless. Even a lot of interviews feel more like stenography than reporting. Which is why I think you're seeing more stories in the trades built around what some newsmaker said in a podcast than something they reported out themselves. The industry reporting is safe and more often than not, fairly unenlightening.
Ted Gioia's Honest Broker Substack recently took a look back at the era of so-called "New Journalism," and here is how he describes it:
They loved exposing corruption and hypocrisy. They battled the system, and were willing to make powerful enemies. They didn’t back down.
We need all of those things right now.
But their books and articles are also bona fide page-turners—the New Journalists rank among the finest prose stylists of the last 100 years. Along the way, they created an entirely new way of reporting on current events, drawing on the techniques of fiction to describe real people and incidents with unprecedented immediacy and intensity.
By comparison, the listicles and down-sized media bites of the current day are sad things indeed.
He highlights 16 classic works of new journalism and some of the most memorable examples are ones that today would be thought of as "entertainment news" stories:
* Lillian Ross's 1952 New Yorker piece "Picture," that followed the history of a single Hollywood film, The Red Badge of Courage, which made little stir at the box office, but led to the end of Louis B. Mayer’s reign as head of MGM.
*Gay Talese's iconic 1966 Esquire piece "Frank Sinatra Has A Cold," in which he assembled a often painfully intimate look at the famed singer after he denied an interview.
I wish there were the opportunities now to write (and sell) this style of reporting. The problem is that there isn't much of a financial incentive to do so, and without that, no one is going to give it a try.
ODDS AND SODS
* Speaking of semi-political reporting, I posted a piece on Sunday noting that media mogul John Malone had donated more than $2 million to Republican PACs and candidates in 2024. And zero to Democrats.
* Here is a rundown of global TV news from today.
WHAT'S NEW TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MONDAY, JANUARY 20TH:
9-1-1 Lone Star Spring Premiere (Fox) - (photo gallery)
Rescue: Hi-Surf Spring Premiere (Fox) - (photo gallery)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 21ST:
Brady Vs. Belichick: The Verdict (Vice)
German Crime Story: Deadlock (MHz Choice) - (first look video)
The Joe Schmo Show (TBS) - (first look video)
SEE YOU ON TUESDAY!