Too Much TV: Your TV Talking Points For Monday, August 5th, 2024

Here's everything you need to know about the world of television for Monday, August 5th, 2024:

THOSE DARN INDUSTRY ANALYSTS
You have to be a paid subscriber to The Ankler to read the entire article (I wish they would let me "gift" the occasional story), but this Claire Atkinson piece comparing the hits and misses of some of the entertainment industry's top analysts is a fun and informative read. Among other things, the piece highlights the incestuous relationship between these analysts and the media companies and executives they cover on a regular basis:

Right or wrong, volume seems to matter most (with Greenfield typically the loudest), especially on camera. And CEOs listen. In fact, the exclusive gatherings that the top names and their firms host — such as Reif Ehrlich’s annual event in Long Island’s Montauk and MoffettNathanson’s Media & Communications Conference — have become essential stops for Hollywood execs to announce (or at least tease) their strategies. 

ESPN chief Jimmy Pitaro reportedly attended June’s Montauk gathering this year, which is off the record. MoffettNathanson’s May confab was livestreamed, the better for execs like Comcast CEO Brian Roberts to make news — unveiling his company’s planned StreamSaver bundle, even though he could have told investors directly on his own earnings call just a few weeks earlier. 

I have conflicted feelings about all of this. The article does a nice job of laying out the conflicting ways analysts make money, including providing pricey research to companies they cover or running live events in order to directly connect industry executives with Wall Street types. It's a fine business model, but it feels increasingly out of touch.

The truth is that while these headline-grabbing analysts are getting all of the attention, there is a small group of smaller, independent media reporters and analysts who are both more accurate than the big guys, but also better at anticipating industry trends. I'd humbly suggest that if you've been reading this newsletter over the past two or three years, my analysis has been both contrary to a lot of the industry conventional wisdom, but also more accurate and willing to take big swings.

The challenge I and other less-connected analysts have right now is access. We don't have PR people booking us into conferences or reaching out to reporters in hopes of providing a few quotes for upcoming reporting. So it can be difficult to break through the analyst clutter. And without that, it's not just hard to drive revenue, it makes it more challenging to convince executives that they need to talk to us as well. 

SPEAKING OF COVERAGE IN THE PRESS
I always appreciate another outlet mentioning my work, because with the collapse of Twitter and recent Google weirdness, it's tough to get my work in front of new audiences.

BGR's Andy Meek mentioned the newsletter in a piece that posted on Thursday, and it definitely brought in some new subscribers:

“In the coming year, you’re going to see an increased emphasis on international growth as well as more telco partnerships,” an unnamed Apple TV+ source said in an interview for Rick Ellis’ fantastic “Too Much TV” email newsletter (which I highly encourage you to sign up for here).

“And while I don’t have any first-hand knowledge about a timeline, I won’t be surprised to see an ad-supported tier rollout. It helps maximize revenue from a smaller subscriber base and our demographics make the audience valuable.” But I think Amazon’s rate-cutting right now might push that timeline back a bit.”

So, thanks Andy, I appreciate the mention!

HOWEVER, NOT EVERY READER IS AS IMPRESSED
My piece in Friday's newsletter on the subscriber antics at Max garnered a lot of reader feedback. But so did my comments about Joe Rogan, which sparked these comments from another happy Too Much TV subscriber:

Image

To be fair, he did wish me a good day.

TWEET OF THE DAY



HMMMM....
As regular readers know, I have been writing regularly about the state of things at the various Penske Media outlets, most notably this recent piece about a proposed shift at The Hollywood Reporter towards a more "Rolling Stone of Hollywood" editorial stance. 

Journalist David Poland retweeting this message from today, from a now-former member of PMC-owned Variety:



I reached out to some people at Penske I've spoken with before to see if the lay-off was a one-off or part of a larger new round of lay-offs. I haven't been able to get any confirmation - at least not enough to publish yet - so if you have anything to share on background or off-the-record, reach out at rick@allyourscreens.com

ODDS AND SODS
* Jon Stewart will be off The Daily Show this week after contracting COVID, and Daily Show correspondent Michael Kosta will step in as host. Stewart is set to return to the show next Monday.

* Shrinking will premiere a twelve-episode second season Wednesday, October 16th on Apple TV+.

* Power Book II: Ghost season four part B premieres Friday, September 6th on Starz.

* In the category of "Wow, who could have predicted this?," MSNBC Films has acquired From Russia with Lev, the first project from MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow’s production company Surprise Inside. The documentary will screen at the MSNBC Live event on September 7th followed by a theatrical and broadcast debut.

WHAT'S NEW TONIGHT AND TOMORROW


MONDAY, AUGUST 5TH:
* Gabby's Dollhouse Season Premiere (Netflix)
* Judy Justice Season Premiere (Freevee/Prime Video)
* POV: Fauna (PBS)

TUESDAY, AUGUST 6TH:
* At Witt's End - The Hunt For A Killer (Hulu)
* Hard Knocks: Training Camp With The Chicago Bears (HBO)
* PD True Series Premiere (Paramount+)
* Rising Impact (Netflix)
* The Eagle Season Two Premiere (MHz Choice)
* The Influencer Series Premiere (Netflix)


SEE YOU ON TUESDAY

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  • SELECT DISTINCT a.id, a.title, a.name, a.checked_out, a.checked_out_time, a.note, a.state, a.access, a.created_time, a.created_user_id, a.ordering, a.language, a.fieldparams, a.params, a.type, a.default_value, a.context, a.group_id, a.label, a.description, a.required, a.only_use_in_subform,l.title AS language_title, l.image AS language_image,uc.name AS editor,ag.title AS access_level,ua.name AS author_name,g.title AS group_title, g.access as group_access, g.state AS group_state, g.note as group_note FROM tvlfg_fields AS a LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_languages` AS l ON l.lang_code = a.language LEFT JOIN tvlfg_users AS uc ON uc.id=a.checked_out LEFT JOIN tvlfg_viewlevels AS ag ON ag.id = a.access LEFT JOIN tvlfg_users AS ua ON ua.id = a.created_user_id LEFT JOIN tvlfg_fields_groups AS g ON g.id = a.group_id LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_fields_categories` AS fc ON fc.field_id = a.id WHERE ( (`a`.`context` = :context AND (`fc`.`category_id` IS NULL OR `fc`.`category_id` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2,:preparedArray3,:preparedArray4)) AND `a`.`access` IN (:preparedArray5,:preparedArray6)) AND (`a`.`group_id` = 0 OR `g`.`access` IN (:preparedArray7,:preparedArray8)) AND `a`.`state` = :state) AND (`a`.`group_id` = 0 OR `g`.`state` = :gstate) AND `a`.`only_use_in_subform` = :only_use_in_subform ORDER BY a.ordering ASC594μs6.06KBParams/libraries/src/MVC/Model/BaseDatabaseModel.php:166Copy
  • SELECT `a`.`id`,`a`.`title`,`a`.`catid`,`a`.`language`, CASE WHEN CHAR_LENGTH(`a`.`alias`) != 0 THEN CONCAT_WS(':', `a`.`id`, `a`.`alias`) ELSE a.id END AS `slug`, CASE WHEN CHAR_LENGTH(`cc`.`alias`) != 0 THEN CONCAT_WS(':', `cc`.`id`, `cc`.`alias`) ELSE cc.id END AS `catslug` FROM `tvlfg_content` AS `a` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_categories` AS `cc` ON `cc`.`id` = `a`.`catid` WHERE `a`.`catid` = :catid AND `a`.`state` = :state AND `a`.`access` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2) AND (`publish_up` IS NULL OR `publish_up` <= :nowDate1) AND (`publish_down` IS NULL OR `publish_down` >= :nowDate2) ORDER BY CASE WHEN `a`.`publish_up` IS NULL THEN `a`.`created` ELSE `a`.`publish_up` END DESC3.35ms58.03KBParams/plugins/content/pagenavigation/src/Extension/PageNavigation.php:188Copy
  • SELECT `c`.`id`,`c`.`asset_id`,`c`.`access`,`c`.`alias`,`c`.`checked_out`,`c`.`checked_out_time`,`c`.`created_time`,`c`.`created_user_id`,`c`.`description`,`c`.`extension`,`c`.`hits`,`c`.`language`,`c`.`level`,`c`.`lft`,`c`.`metadata`,`c`.`metadesc`,`c`.`metakey`,`c`.`modified_time`,`c`.`note`,`c`.`params`,`c`.`parent_id`,`c`.`path`,`c`.`published`,`c`.`rgt`,`c`.`title`,`c`.`modified_user_id`,`c`.`version`, CASE WHEN CHAR_LENGTH(`c`.`alias`) != 0 THEN CONCAT_WS(':', `c`.`id`, `c`.`alias`) ELSE `c`.`id` END as `slug` FROM `tvlfg_categories` AS `s` INNER JOIN `tvlfg_categories` AS `c` ON (`s`.`lft` <= `c`.`lft` AND `c`.`lft` < `s`.`rgt`) OR (`c`.`lft` < `s`.`lft` AND `s`.`rgt` < `c`.`rgt`) WHERE (`c`.`extension` = :extension OR `c`.`extension` = 'system') AND `c`.`access` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2) AND `c`.`published` = 1 AND `s`.`id` = :id ORDER BY `c`.`lft`518μs5.19KBParams/libraries/src/Categories/Categories.php:375Copy
  • SELECT u.id, u.name, u.username, u.params FROM tvlfg_users AS u LEFT JOIN tvlfg_user_usergroup_map AS g ON g.user_id = u.id WHERE u.id = '51' GROUP BY u.id177μs1KB/plugins/system/t4/src/t4/MVC/Model/AuthorModel.php:279Copy
  • SELECT enabled FROM tvlfg_extensions WHERE `type` = 'plugin' AND `element` = 'profile'165μs856B/plugins/system/t4/src/t4/MVC/Model/AuthorModel.php:467Copy
  • SELECT profile_key, profile_value FROM tvlfg_user_profiles WHERE user_id = 51 AND profile_key LIKE 'profile.%' ORDER BY ordering195μs1.09KB/plugins/system/t4/src/t4/MVC/Model/AuthorModel.php:420Copy
  • SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `tvlfg_users`1.46ms2.2KB/libraries/vendor/joomla/database/src/Mysqli/MysqliDriver.php:625Copy
  • SELECT * FROM `tvlfg_users` WHERE `id` = :userid229μs4.41KBParams/libraries/src/Table/User.php:104Copy
  • SELECT `g`.`id`,`g`.`title` FROM `tvlfg_usergroups` AS `g` INNER JOIN `tvlfg_user_usergroup_map` AS `m` ON `m`.`group_id` = `g`.`id` WHERE `m`.`user_id` = :muserid204μs1.7KBParams/libraries/src/Table/User.php:132Copy
  • SELECT DISTINCT a.id, a.title, a.name, a.checked_out, a.checked_out_time, a.note, a.state, a.access, a.created_time, a.created_user_id, a.ordering, a.language, a.fieldparams, a.params, a.type, a.default_value, a.context, a.group_id, a.label, a.description, a.required, a.only_use_in_subform,l.title AS language_title, l.image AS language_image,uc.name AS editor,ag.title AS access_level,ua.name AS author_name,g.title AS group_title, g.access as group_access, g.state AS group_state, g.note as group_note FROM tvlfg_fields AS a LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_languages` AS l ON l.lang_code = a.language LEFT JOIN tvlfg_users AS uc ON uc.id=a.checked_out LEFT JOIN tvlfg_viewlevels AS ag ON ag.id = a.access LEFT JOIN tvlfg_users AS ua ON ua.id = a.created_user_id LEFT JOIN tvlfg_fields_groups AS g ON g.id = a.group_id WHERE ( (`a`.`context` = :context AND `a`.`access` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2)) AND (`a`.`group_id` = 0 OR `g`.`access` IN (:preparedArray3,:preparedArray4)) AND `a`.`state` = :state) AND (`a`.`group_id` = 0 OR `g`.`state` = :gstate) AND `a`.`only_use_in_subform` = :only_use_in_subform ORDER BY a.ordering ASC419μs5.31KBParams/libraries/src/MVC/Model/BaseDatabaseModel.php:166Copy
  • SELECT `name` FROM `tvlfg_users` WHERE id = '51'124μs11.84KB/plugins/system/t4/src/t4/MVC/Router/Content/Router.php:66Copy
  • SELECT username FROM tvlfg_users WHERE id=5198μs856B/plugins/system/t4/src/t4/MVC/Router/T4.php:288Copy
  • SELECT `m`.`id`,`m`.`title`,`m`.`module`,`m`.`position`,`m`.`content`,`m`.`showtitle`,`m`.`params`,`mm`.`menuid` FROM `tvlfg_modules` AS `m` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_modules_menu` AS `mm` ON `mm`.`moduleid` = `m`.`id` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_extensions` AS `e` ON `e`.`element` = `m`.`module` AND `e`.`client_id` = `m`.`client_id` WHERE ( ( (`m`.`published` = 1 AND `e`.`enabled` = 1 AND `m`.`client_id` = :clientId AND `m`.`access` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2)) AND (`m`.`publish_up` IS NULL OR `m`.`publish_up` <= :publishUp)) AND (`m`.`publish_down` IS NULL OR `m`.`publish_down` >= :publishDown)) AND (`mm`.`menuid` = :itemId OR `mm`.`menuid` <= 0) ORDER BY `m`.`position`,`m`.`ordering`1.11ms2.38KBParams/libraries/src/Cache/Controller/CallbackController.php:51Copy
  • SELECT `metakey` FROM `tvlfg_content` WHERE `id` = :id174μs1.63KBParams/modules/mod_related_items/src/Helper/RelatedItemsHelper.php:88Copy
  • SELECT `a`.`id` FROM `tvlfg_content` AS `a` WHERE ( ( (`a`.`id` != :id AND `a`.`state` = 1 AND `a`.`access` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2)) AND (`a`.`metakey` LIKE :preparedArray3 OR `a`.`metakey` LIKE :preparedArray4)) AND (`a`.`publish_up` IS NULL OR `a`.`publish_up` <= :nowDate1)) AND (`a`.`publish_down` IS NULL OR `a`.`publish_down` >= :nowDate2) LIMIT 52.17ms1.85KBParams/modules/mod_related_items/src/Helper/RelatedItemsHelper.php:152Copy
  • SELECT `a`.`id`,`a`.`title`,`a`.`alias`,`a`.`introtext`,`a`.`fulltext`,`a`.`checked_out`,`a`.`checked_out_time`,`a`.`catid`,`a`.`created`,`a`.`created_by`,`a`.`created_by_alias`,`a`.`modified`,`a`.`modified_by`,CASE WHEN `a`.`publish_up` IS NULL THEN `a`.`created` ELSE `a`.`publish_up` END AS `publish_up`,`a`.`publish_down`,`a`.`images`,`a`.`urls`,`a`.`attribs`,`a`.`metadata`,`a`.`metakey`,`a`.`metadesc`,`a`.`access`,`a`.`hits`,`a`.`featured`,`a`.`language`,LENGTH(`a`.`fulltext`) AS `readmore`,`a`.`ordering`,`fp`.`featured_up`,`fp`.`featured_down`,CASE WHEN `c`.`published` = 2 AND `a`.`state` > 0 THEN 2 WHEN `c`.`published` != 1 THEN 0 ELSE `a`.`state` END AS `state`,`c`.`title` AS `category_title`,`c`.`path` AS `category_route`,`c`.`access` AS `category_access`,`c`.`alias` AS `category_alias`,`c`.`language` AS `category_language`,`c`.`published`,`c`.`published` AS `parents_published`,`c`.`lft`,CASE WHEN `a`.`created_by_alias` > ' ' THEN `a`.`created_by_alias` ELSE `ua`.`name` END AS `author`,`ua`.`email` AS `author_email`,`uam`.`name` AS `modified_by_name`,`parent`.`title` AS `parent_title`,`parent`.`id` AS `parent_id`,`parent`.`path` AS `parent_route`,`parent`.`alias` AS `parent_alias`,`parent`.`language` AS `parent_language` FROM `tvlfg_content` AS `a` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_categories` AS `c` ON `c`.`id` = `a`.`catid` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_users` AS `ua` ON `ua`.`id` = `a`.`created_by` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_users` AS `uam` ON `uam`.`id` = `a`.`modified_by` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_categories` AS `parent` ON `parent`.`id` = `c`.`parent_id` LEFT JOIN `tvlfg_content_frontpage` AS `fp` ON `fp`.`content_id` = `a`.`id` WHERE `a`.`access` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2) AND `c`.`access` IN (:preparedArray3,:preparedArray4) AND `c`.`published` = 1 AND `a`.`state` = :condition AND `a`.`id` IN (:preparedArray5,:preparedArray6,:preparedArray7,:preparedArray8,:preparedArray9) AND (`a`.`publish_up` IS NULL OR `a`.`publish_up` <= :publishUp) AND (`a`.`publish_down` IS NULL OR `a`.`publish_down` >= :publishDown) ORDER BY a.ordering ASC1.21ms97.61KBParams/libraries/src/MVC/Model/BaseDatabaseModel.php:166Copy
  • SELECT `m`.`tag_id`,`m`.`content_item_id`,`t`.* FROM `tvlfg_contentitem_tag_map` AS `m` INNER JOIN `tvlfg_tags` AS `t` ON `m`.`tag_id` = `t`.`id` WHERE `m`.`type_alias` = :contentType AND `t`.`published` = 1 AND `m`.`content_item_id` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2,:preparedArray3,:preparedArray4,:preparedArray5) AND `t`.`access` IN (:preparedArray6,:preparedArray7)3.19ms5.47KBParams/libraries/src/Helper/TagsHelper.php:448Copy
  • SELECT `c`.`id`,`c`.`asset_id`,`c`.`access`,`c`.`alias`,`c`.`checked_out`,`c`.`checked_out_time`,`c`.`created_time`,`c`.`created_user_id`,`c`.`description`,`c`.`extension`,`c`.`hits`,`c`.`language`,`c`.`level`,`c`.`lft`,`c`.`metadata`,`c`.`metadesc`,`c`.`metakey`,`c`.`modified_time`,`c`.`note`,`c`.`params`,`c`.`parent_id`,`c`.`path`,`c`.`published`,`c`.`rgt`,`c`.`title`,`c`.`modified_user_id`,`c`.`version`, CASE WHEN CHAR_LENGTH(`c`.`alias`) != 0 THEN CONCAT_WS(':', `c`.`id`, `c`.`alias`) ELSE `c`.`id` END as `slug` FROM `tvlfg_categories` AS `s` INNER JOIN `tvlfg_categories` AS `c` ON (`s`.`lft` <= `c`.`lft` AND `c`.`lft` < `s`.`rgt`) OR (`c`.`lft` < `s`.`lft` AND `s`.`rgt` < `c`.`rgt`) WHERE (`c`.`extension` = :extension OR `c`.`extension` = 'system') AND `c`.`access` IN (:preparedArray1,:preparedArray2) AND `c`.`published` = 1 AND `s`.`id` = :id ORDER BY `c`.`lft`487μs5.19KBParams/libraries/src/Categories/Categories.php:375Copy
  • SELECT `name`,`element` FROM `tvlfg_extensions` WHERE `type` = 'plugin' AND `folder` = 'finder' AND `enabled` = 1396μs976B/administrator/components/com_finder/src/Helper/LanguageHelper.php:135Copy
  • SELECT `title` FROM `tvlfg_finder_taxonomy` WHERE `parent_id` = 1 AND `state` = 1 AND `access` IN (1,5)197μs904B/administrator/components/com_finder/src/Indexer/Taxonomy.php:314Copy
  • SELECT * FROM tvlfg_acym_configuration304μs2.88KB/administrator/components/com_acym/libraries/joomla/database.php:32Copy
  • SELECT * FROM tvlfg_acym_list WHERE type = 'standard'172μs2.28KB/administrator/components/com_acym/libraries/joomla/database.php:32Copy
  • SELECT * FROM tvlfg_acym_field148μs2.31KB/administrator/components/com_acym/libraries/joomla/database.php:32Copy
  • SELECT * FROM tvlfg_acym_form WHERE active = 1 AND type != 'shortcode'136μs1.2KB/administrator/components/com_acym/libraries/joomla/database.php:32Copy
  • SELECT SUM(CASE WHEN `a`.`next_execution` <= :now THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS due_count,SUM(CASE WHEN `a`.`locked` IS NULL THEN 0 ELSE 1 END) AS locked_count FROM `tvlfg_scheduler_tasks` AS `a` WHERE `a`.`state` = 1175μs1.68KBParams/administrator/components/com_scheduler/src/Model/TasksModel.php:466Copy
  • SELECT `session_id` FROM `tvlfg_session` WHERE `session_id` = ?163μs1.63KBParams/libraries/vendor/joomla/session/src/Handler/DatabaseHandler.php:291Copy
  • UPDATE `tvlfg_session` SET `data` = ? , `time` = ? WHERE `session_id` = ?1.32ms912BParams/libraries/vendor/joomla/session/src/Handler/DatabaseHandler.php:318Copy