One of the pieces of conventional streaming video wisdom you will often hear is that SVOD (subscription video on demand) growth is slowing and that the future will bring a shrinking SVOD subscriber base as viewers shift their focus to AVOD (advertising-supported video on demand) platforms.
A new report from Digital TV Research suggests that the SVOD may still have a lot of growth left in it.
According to the forecast, global SVOD subscriptions will increase by 321 million between 2023 and 2029 to reach 1.79 billion. The three countries adding the largest number of subscriptions over that period will be the US (30 million subscriptions), followed by India (27 million) and Brazil (23 million).
The top six US-based platforms will have 946 million SVOD subscribers by 2029, up from 751 million in 2023.
Globally, Netflix will remain the largest single platform, adding 44 million subscribers between 2023 and 2029 to take its total to 298 million.
Amazon Prime Video will likely be in second place globally, although its subscription package makes it impossible to break out specific subscriber numbers.
Assuming that Hotstar continues as part of the Disney offerings, Disney+ will continue to be in third place globally, but with more than 100 million subscribers fewer than Netflix. The company has begun substantially cutting back its original content spend and efforts to grow its subscriber base in APAC.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, commented: “Platforms now measure their success through their profitability. This means that already-profitable Netflix will benefit more than its US-based competitors."