Too Much TV: Don't Let Predictive Markets Ruin TV & Media Reporting

Here’s everything you need to know about the world of television for Wednesday, March 18th, 2026:

ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF HOW DOING THE RIGHT THING IS BAD FOR THE BOTTOM LINE
I don't have to tell you that journalism is undergoing a massive transformation right now and that has sparked the trend of hundreds of journalists deciding to start their own newsletter. And each one of them is asking for your money.

To be clear, I think paying for journalism you find useful is a good thing. This newsletter is my primary source of income and I deeply appreciate every person who has made the decision to support me financially. Either through a paid subscription or by bypassing the Substack overlords and buying me a cup or two of coffee.

To be honest, I try and run this newsletter in large part by thinking about what annoys me when I read other newsletters. So all of my daily newsletters are in front of a paywall and I don't constantly bug you for money. Because while statistics show that constant reminders does drive paid subscriptions, I find it annoying to see it mentioned in every newsletter.

The money from gambling and the predictive markets that pretend they aren't allowing gambling is seeping into every aspect of the media. Your favorite TV sports broadcasts spend as much time hyping the odds for gamblers as they do showing the actual game. And that money is now flooding into your favorite newsletters, with Substack making a deal with Polymarket to encourage writers to use that service in their stories. And both Polymarket and rival Kalshi have been reaching out to individual writers offering them deals. 

I've had a couple different people reach out in recent weeks attempting to gauge my interest and I have brushed off their attempts. But I received a formal offer this morning and turning it down was maybe the most difficult business decision I've had to make so far.

I won't get into the details, but it involved a substantial amount of money (at least for me), and all I had to do was use their data to generate a couple of story ideas each week. Stuff along the lines of "Hey, this is what users think about this show so far," or "Here are the latest predictions on who might win "Survivor," etc.

I turned them down, because I think this is an ethically slippery slope. I've made it a point to only cover things here I find interesting and useful. I'll take pitches from anyone, but I don't promise to cover something. And I certainly don't do it for money.

And in a larger sense, I feel as if it gamifies television and media in a way that sucks the soul right out of what makes the medium so powerful. It turns the connection you might feel to the material into just another reason to gamble on the results. Maybe that works for some viewers, but it's not something I am comfortable encouraging.

But you are going to see more of this popping up in some of your favorite newsletters in the coming months. I am not going to argue that you shouldn't read them simply because they are taking money from a predictive market. However, I do want you to keep in mind that taking money from a Polymarket to hype their gambling odds on a TV show is ethically the same as taking money from a network to write positive things about their programming.

TUBI INSIGHTS REPORT
The free AVOD service Tubi has released details from The Stream 2026: When Intention Becomes Attention, its annual cultural insights report examining how streaming entertainment is influencing consumer behavior. 

This survey was conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of Tubi from November 24th, 2025 to December 2nd, 2025, among 2,500 respondents ages 18+ that stream video at least one hour a week and live in the United States.

There were a lot of interesting data points, and some of them are a bit surprising:

* 55% of viewers report streaming TV or movies for 1–3 hours in one sitting, and are even more likely to report streaming 3+ hours in one sitting. Even more noteworthy is that viewers say they’re purposefully opting towards bigger screens like televisions as a way to denote quality streaming time, as opposed to time spent scrolling on a mobile phone.

* In terms of overall engagement, 90% of viewers say they are most engaged while streaming TV or movies compared to 82% for live events and 79% for social media.

* The desire for intentional engagement also extends to the streaming format that viewers prefer. Ninety percent of viewers surveyed reported that on‑demand streaming (i.e. selecting the content when they want it) captures higher attention than channel‑based streaming (78%) and cable/satellite (71%) (i.e. shows or movies playing at a set time). 

* Sixty-five percent, up 15% year over year, say they feel part of a community based on the movies and shows they watch. Movies (44%) and TV shows (38%) lead fandom categories, with viewers purchasing apparel (50%), subscriptions (37%) and live experiences (30%) to demonstrate their loyalty.

* 97% of respondents interested in watching content released more than 10 years ago. The primary driver is quality, with 63% citing superior style and storytelling as the top reason for revisiting older titles. Twenty-four percent, up 7% year over year, do so to stay engaged in cultural conversations. Seventy-nine percent believe streaming services should remind them of content they used to love, not just promote new releases, and 67%, up 6% year over year, say losing access to comfort content feels like losing part of their safe space.

* While 84% of respondents say it only takes a few minutes to decide what to watch when viewing alone, 58% report it takes at least 10 minutes to land on a choice with a partner. With 43% of viewers primarily streaming alongside a significant other, aligning on entertainment preferences may be more consequential than ever: 61% agree they’re more likely to date someone who shares their taste in movies and TV shows, and nearly a third (30%) say they’ve ended a relationship because their tastes were too different—an 8% increase year over year. Sixty-seven percent are unwilling to share their streaming login unless the relationship is serious.

* Sixty-seven percent agree digital creator content feels more original than most traditional TV and movies, and 63% say watching creator content feels no different than streaming a TV show. Thirty-seven percent want platforms to bring existing creator content onto streaming services, 36% want creators cast in original programming and 33% want ads for creator content featured on platforms. Seventy-eight percent wish they could watch new creator content without paying an additional fee.

* Comedy (70%), action (68%) and crime (66%) remain the most popular genres, while growth opportunities are emerging in independent film (36%), coming-of-age programming (34%), young adult content (31%) and creator-led programming (31%). Demand for originality is rising: 76% would prefer original content over remakes or franchise extensions, up 12% year over year. Seventy-seven percent want diversity and representation when they stream, up 5% year over year and 9% since 2024, and 76% want more programming from independent or smaller creators. For Gen Z, 78% would prefer original content over remakes or franchise extensions and 79% want diversity and representation when they stream. 

* 74% of respondents have (or would) cancel a subscription due to a price increase and 67% have skipped watching a new show or movie once they realized they would have to pay for a subscription streaming service.

And while I have heard this statistic before, it's worth highlighting that according to internal Tubi data, 95% of the viewing on its platform is on-demand, not FAST channels. Pluto TV's FAST viewing percentage has traditionally been a bit higher, but on-demand is a much bigger part of the AVOD business than many people realize.

I haven't seen a lot of great public data about FAST viewership. I know from talking to people in the industry that overall, show-specific FAST channels tend to do better than genre-specific channels. And I know that a remarkable number of FAST channels have almost no audience. But I'd love to see some more specific breakdowns of the FAST business.

CHANGES AT MSNOW
MSNOW has made it official and announced a series of changes in its lineup, as it leans a bit more into its progressive audience.

Morning Joe is returning to its original 9 a.m. end time and Stephanie Ruhle will anchor from 9 until 11 a.m. Alicia Menendez is exiting the Weeknight show and will anchor from Noon until 2:00 p.m. 

Ana Cabrera is leaving the network and in a post on X, she explained that it was her choice:

“I’ve decided to make a change, and I am leaving MS NOW. I am truly grateful for my time at MS NOW, for my wonderful colleagues, my amazing team that works so hard every day, and for you, the viewers who’ve put your trust in me to serve you through this most meaningful work. Thank you. I’m not leaving immediately, I’ll still be helming the anchor desk for a few more months, but I wanted to give you a heads up, and I look forward to sharing more about what’s next for me soon. Stay tuned.” 

Chris Jansing is also exiting her Noon to 2:00 p.m. anchor role and according to MSNOW, "will lean into her reporting roots as MS NOW's chief political reporter."

In other changes, Luke Russert will replace Alicia Menendez in the 7:00 p.m. hour, where he'll join current co-hosts Symone Sanders-Townsend, and Michael Steele. Ali Velshi will replace Stephanie Ruhle as host on The 11th Hour and Jacob Soboroff will take over Velshi's 10:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. weekend time slot.

And in good news for Chris Hayes fans such as myself, he will return to hosting five nights a week.

All of these changes will take effect in June.

ODDS AND SODS
* The six-part series The Season will premiere in the U.S. on Hulu sometime in June (I really hate these "sometime this month" announcements). Here is the official logline: "The Season, a champagne-fueled revenge drama, unfolds during Hong Kong’s high society summer, where connections are everything, and nothing is quite as it seems. At the center is the Hext family, an old-money institution that rules the city’s elite. through yacht parties, horse races, and charity galas – while secrets and scandals simmer beneath the surface.  Into this world steps Cola, a newcomer with a hidden agenda. As rivalries ignite and alliances turn lethal, the season builds to a climactic reckoning that threatens to shatter the fabric of high society."

* The Danish series The Chestnut Man: Hide & Seek premieres Thursday, May 7th on Netflix. Here is a first video look at the series, as well as some photos. Here is the official logline: "A 41-year-old woman is reported missing, and when the police unravel her digital footprints, it becomes evident that she has been stalked for months. An unidentified perpetrator has been playing an involuntary game of hide and seek, surveilling her while sending her not only images and videos but also a seemingly innocent nursery rhyme-style counting song. When the woman is later found murdered, it becomes evident that this case can be linked to a similar, unsolved murder case of a 17-year-old high school student who was found murdered two years ago. But what is the connection between the two victims? And when will the perpetrator begin to “play” hide and seek again?"

* Prime Video in Germany and Austria has agreed a multi-year deal with Leonine Studios, the German independent media company. Per the deal, Prime Video will take all movies from the Leonine theatrical slate with theatrical release dates starting January 1st 2026, along with six months of exclusive SVoD rights within the pay-2 window.

INSIDE THE BILLION DOLLAR BUSINESS THAT IS ABBA
The newsletter Stat Significant has a really enlightening post on how ABBA has turned into a billion-dollar business. And while this story isn't specifically TV-related, it's a great reminder of how much money can be made from iconic pop culture memories:

If you love ABBA, then London is the place for you. You can begin your day by attending a production of Mamma Mia!, where you’ll listen to theatrical singers belt ABBA classics like “Dancing Queen.” Then you can take the Tube to ABBA Arena, a purpose-built stadium that seats over 3,000 people, where you can watch holograms of the band perform “Take a Chance on Me.” And if you’re hungry after a long day of ABBA consumption, you can head over to Mamma Mia! The Party, a theatrical dining experience where you’ll eat a four-course Greek meal while being serenaded with more ABBA tunes. And if your ABBA appetite has yet to be quenched, you can return home to watch Mamma Mia! the movie and its sequel, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, or you can play ABBA: You Can Dance, a dance-dance-revolution-style video game on Nintendo Wii.

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